Summary

In 2024, the Terminal Industriel Polyvalent de San Pedro (TIPSP), operated by Arise Ports & Logistics in Côte d'Ivoire, handled bulk export, import and regional transit flows that would not have been commercially viable through the legacy multipurpose port. By 2030, the activity enabled by TIPSP is projected to support around 54,500 jobs and around USD 293 million in GDP across Côte d'Ivoire and the wider West African region, with associated revenues of around USD 585 million.

 

To quantify these effects, QBIS modelled the socio-economic impact of TIPSP across five distinct trade flows: exports of nickel ore, exports of manganese ore, imports of cementitious cargo, imports of fertiliser, and the transit of iron ore from Mali and Guinea. For each flow, QBIS estimated total transport and logistics costs at TIPSP and at the legacy port, derived the cost reduction enabled by the new terminal, and translated this into volume, value, employment and GDP effects using established trade elasticities and Côte d'Ivoire's input–output multipliers. The analysis distinguishes carefully between incremental impacts — where exports existed beforehand and TIPSP improves competitiveness — and full impacts, where TIPSP removes a binding capacity constraint and enables activity that would not otherwise have taken place.

 

The analysis reveals that TIPSP's contribution extends well beyond port operations. By lowering transport and logistics costs by around 12% and removing capacity constraints, the terminal strengthens upstream mining, supports downstream industrial users, enhances agricultural productivity through cheaper fertiliser, and increases household purchasing power through lower cement input prices. Iron ore transit additionally positions San Pedro as a regional bulk export gateway for landlocked production in Mali and Guinea.

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Publication

The results of the study were presented in A.P. Moller Capital's publication Impact Report 2025, published in November 2025. The study results are intended to be shared with anybody having interests in using its content to support the development of bulk port infrastructure in emerging markets and to anybody contributing to the assessment of how targeted logistics investments enable industrial development, export diversification and regional economic integration. 

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Project purpose and objectives

The purpose of the study is two-fold. First, to provide an assessment of the socio-economic impact associated with TIPSP across the principal trade flows it serves — both today and through 2030 — and hence the broader economic footprint enabled by the terminal. Second, through facilitating detailed, flow-by-flow assessments of how reduced logistics costs and removed capacity constraints translate into jobs, GDP and revenues, to provide aid for evaluating how bulk port infrastructure can support export diversification, industrial expansion and regional integration in emerging markets, and for informing the case for further investment of this kind.​​​​​​​​